Figure 1WINTER 1996
“Nationwide, there is a growing concern over an escalation in juvenile delinquency."
“Historically, the youth of America have had a proclivity toward property-related crimes; however during the 1980's crimes related to violence became a more significant component of juvenile crime.”
“Juveniles commit about twelve percent of all violent crime in the United States, and this percentage has changed little in the past three decades.” “The arrest rate of adults for all crimes has grown three-and-one-half times greater than that for juveniles over the past decade, but juvenile crime seems to have drawn the most attention.”
These opposing and conflicting quotations reflect the ongoing, and often controversial, national dialogue surrounding the evolving nature of juvenile criminal behavior and the extent to which today’s juvenile offenders differ from those offenders of the 1970's and 1980's. Has a qualitative and quantitative transformation occurred in the criminal behavior of our youth? Are today’s youth being arrested more frequently than the teens of previous decades? Do the juvenile offenders of the 1990's demonstrate a greater propensity to violence?
This issue of SystemStats will examine arrest data for a nineteen-year period(1976-1994) in an effort to delineate trends in the number of juvenile arrests occurring in North Carolina during this period. Arrest data, from the State Bureau of Investigation’s annual Crime in
North Carolina series, will be presented for juveniles under the age of 16 and for 16 and 17 year old youthful offenders. It is anticipated that an exploration of this arrest data will serve as a foundation for partially illuminating and dissecting the nature of juvenile delinquency in North Carolina. Analyzing arrest data in this historical fashion will provide the state’s criminal justice policy makers and practitioners with timely and useful information as they seek to address and resolve the many questions surrounding the implications and ramifications of juvenile crime.
The number of juveniles, under the age of 16, who were arrested in 1994 (N=19,502) surpassed the total number arrested in 1976 (N=13,987) by 39.4 percent. Arrests of 16 and 17 year old offenders grew from 18,329 in 1976 to 30,532 in 1994. This growth represents a 66.6 percent increase; an increase whose magnitude exceeds the 46 percent increase in the number of adult arrests during this same period. The 1994 arrest rates , for both groups of juveniles, also document an expansion from the level of arrest activity in 1976. The 1976 rate for offenders, under the age of 16, was 9.4 arrests per 1,000 children under the age of 16. The 1994 rate was 12.8 arrests per 1,000 children. The arrest rate for the 16 and 17 year old group doubled from 86 arrests in 1976 to 176 arrests, per 1,000, in 1994. The following sections will explore these increases with specific attention being devoted to the most salient Part I and II type offenses as defined by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Procedure.
Part I Offenses
Figure 1 reveals that the arrest trends for all Part I offenses have experienced considerable variation since 1976, with the most pronounced variation being for the 16 and 17 year old offender category. The number of 16 and 17 year old delinquents arrested for Part I offenses in 1994 (N=9,667) was 25.5 percent greater than the number arrested in 1976 (N=7,704). The combined Part I arrest rate for this group increased from 36.1 in 1976 to 55.9 arrests, per 1,000 16 and 17 year olds in 1994. The total number of Part I arrests for this offender group steadily declined from 1980 (N=8,559) to its lowest point in 1983 (N=6,246). Since this decline the rate slowly escalated to its current maximum peak of 9,667 arrests in 1994.
The total number of Part I arrests, for juveniles less than 16, increased by four percent from 1976 to 1994, with a corresponding increase in the arrest rate from 4.8 to 4.9 arrests per 1,000 in 1994. Prior to the publication of the 1994 data the number of Part I arrests for this group was highest in 1977 (N=7,310), with the fewest number of arrests occurring in 1982 (N=5,111). However, the number of arrests reported in 1994 exceeded the prior 1977 mark. Part I arrests for juveniles have experienced an average increase of slightly more than 3.5 percent per year since 1982.
Figure 1Part I Violent Offenses
The increasing arrest trend in the total number of Part I offenses, which began in the mid 1980's, can be directly attributed to the dramatic rise in the number of arrests for Part I violent offenses. In 1994, the number of juveniles under age 16 who were arrested for Part I violent offenses (N=1,102) grossly exceeded the number arrested in 1976 (N=319) by 245 percent. Arrests of young violent offenders have increased 115 percent since 1988. The Part I violent offense arrest rate for this group climbed from .21 to .72 arrests per 1,000 children during this period. Arrests for violent offenses constituted 4.5 percent of all Part I arrests in 1976 and 14.8 percent in 1994.
The number of 16 and 17 year olds arrested for violent offenses also increased during this period, but the percentage of growth was not as significant as that of their younger counterparts. Arrests for Part I violent offenses expanded from 874 in 1976 to 2,137 in 1994 (144.5%). The violent offense arrest rate grew from 4.1 in 1976 to 12.4 arrests per 1,000 16 and 17 year olds in 1994. Arrests for violent offenses constituted 11.3 percent of all Part I arrests for this older group in 1976 and 22.1 percent in 1994.
A comparison of the 1976 and 1994 arrest statistics for each specific Part I violent offense shows a 323 percent increase in the number of younger juveniles arrested for aggravated assault (1976, N=190; 1994, N=805). The number of young offenders arrested for this doubled between 1986 and 1992. The number of older juveniles arrested for aggravated assault jumped 174.2 percent (1976, N=531; 1994, N=1,456).
Consequently; the aggravated assault arrest rate ballooned from 2.5 arrests to 8.4, per 1,000 16 and 17 year olds.
The number of younger juveniles arrested formurder and manslaughter in 1994 (N=14) represents a 55.5 percent increase over the number arrested in 1976 (N=9). Despite this high percentage increase, arrest rates for this group remained disproportionately low --ranging from .001 to .017 arrests per 1,000 children. Murder and manslaughter arrests for the older delinquents ranged from a high of 79 arrests in 1994 to a low of 24 arrests in 1983. The number of arrests increased 55 percent from 1976 to 1994. Trends in the murder and manslaughter arrest data for older offenders reflect a bimodal distribution. A high number of arrests occurred between 1976 and 1981, followed by a declining or leveling off period between 1982 and 1987. Since 1988, arrests have steadily climbed in a linear fashion.
Robbery arrests increased 135.6 percent for offenders under the age of 16 and 125.7 percent for the 16 and 17 year old criminals. The highest number of robbery arrests for both age groups were recorded in 1994 (Under 16, N=238; 16&17, N=553). Prior to 1987, no apparent trends occurred in the arrest rates for either group, with the rates vacillating from year to year. The groups’ arrest rates have consistently grown since 1987, with the exception of the 1992 rates, which displayed a slight decline from the previous year.
Arrests for forcible rape increased from 1976 to 1994; an increase whose growth was most pronounced among the younger offenders. Arrests increased 136.8 percent for the younger delinquents and four percent for the older delinquents. The arrest rate for the older offender group remained relatively stable over the entire nineteen year time period. The arrest rate for the younger delinquents doubled during the same period. However, as with the murder and manslaughter arrest rates, forcible rape still remains a rare offense for this group with only .03 arrests per 1,000 children.
Part I Property Offenses
Trends for the cumulative number of arrests for the Part I property offenses are graphically presented in Figure 2 (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson). Arrests of juveniles for Part I property offenses declined from 6,819 in 1976 to 6,320 in 1994. This represents a 7.3 percent decrease, a decrease that parallels a reduction in the arrest rate from 4.6 to 4.1 arrests per 1,000 children. Arrests for Part I property offenses constituted 95.5 percent of all 1976 Part I arrests for this group. This percentage has experienced a dramatic decline due to the increasing number of young offenders being arrested for Part I violent offenses. Arrests for Part I property offenses constituted a lesser 85.2 percent of all 1994 Part I arrests.
Arrest trends for the 16 and 17 year old offender category reveal an opposite and diverging pattern of arrest activity when compared with the trend data for their younger counterparts. The number of arrests for Part I property offenses were nearly identical for
these two groups of offenders in 1976 (under
Figure 216, N=6,819; 16&17, N=6,830). While arrests had declined for the younger group by 1994 arrests of 16 and 17 year old property offenders had grown by 10.2 percent (N=7,530). The arrest rate for this group increased from 32.0 arrests per 1,000 in 1976 to 43.6 arrests per 1,000 in 1994. Arrests for property offenses comprised 88.7 percent of all Part I arrests for this older group in 1976 and a lower 75.7 percent in 1994.
An examination of arrest trends for each specific Part I property offense reveals a significant increase in the number of young offenders being arrested for arson. The number of juveniles who were arrested for this offense in 1994 (N=165) exceeded the number arrested in 1976 (N=68) by 142.6 percent. The number of arson arrests has fluctuated with sporadic periods of extreme growth punctuated by substantial decline. Arson arrests of 16 and 17 year old offenders escalated 57.1 percent between 1976 and 1994. The disparity in the number of arrests, between the two age groups has significantly widened since 1990 with arrests of younger offenders outweighing those of older offenders by approximately 2.5 to 1.0.
Larceny arrests for older offenders, increased 30.7 percent between 1976 and 1994, while arrests of juveniles experienced a lesser increase of 9.9 percent. The larceny arrest rate for 16 and 17 year olds climbed from 16.7 arrests to 26.9 arrests per 1,000. Despite the lower increase in the total number of arrests for the younger set of offenders, the arrest rate for this group remained relatively stable over the course of the nineteen-year period.
Burglary arrests dropped between 1976 and 1994 for both sets of delinquents with the greatest decrease being in the under the age of 16 age group. Arrests for this group declined39 percent from 2,409 in 1976 to 1,470 in 1994. The number of arrests for the older offenders declined 14.1 percent from 2,789 arrests in 1976 to 2,396 in 1994. However, the prevalence of burglary arrests remained constant throughout the entire period, as evidenced by a minimal amount of variation in the annual arrest statistics.
Arrests for motor vehicle theft also declined for both groups of violators with the greatest decline occurring for the younger delinquents. The number of young delinquents arrested for this offense in 1994 (N=373) was 11 percent lower than the number arrested in 1976 (N=419). The reduction for the older delinquents was 5.7 percent over this period. The arrest activity for both offender age groups experienced three distinct waves during the nineteen-year period. The greatest number of arrests occurred between 1976 and 1981, followed by a dramatic reduction from 1982 to 1987. During the period of 1988 to 1994, the trend reversed and arrests for motor vehicle theft began to climb upward once again.
Selected Part II Offenses
Drug Violations
The pattern of drug violation arrests for both offender age groups corresponds to the predominant arrest trend between 1976 and 1994. As portrayed in Figure 3, drug arrest activity peaked in the mid to late 1970s, declined through the early and mid 1980s, and experienced a substantial increase beginning in 1988. Arrests of juveniles ranged from a high of 657 in 1994, to a low of 164 in 1987. Arrests for drug violations increased 300 percent between 1987 and 1994.
The number of 16 and 17 year old offenders who were arrested for drug law violations in1994 (N=2,456) exceeded the number arrested during the previously recorded peak year of 1976 (N=1,962). Drug arrests for this group ranged from this new high mark in 1994 to a low of 842 in 1983. Arrests for drug law violations swelled 132.1 percent for this group between 1987 and 1994. While arrest rates did not vary significantly for younger offenders, the arrest rate for older offenders increased from 9.2 in 1976 to a high of 14.2 arrests per 1,000 in 1994.
Figure 3Weapon Offenses
The arrest trends for weapon violations depict a strong linear increase for both groups of delinquents. The number of juveniles arrested for this offense in 1976 (N=65) was 852 percent lower than the number arrested in 1994 (N=619).
In 1976, juveniles accounted for 27.0 percent of the two groups combined number of weapons violation arrests. By 1994 this percentage had grown to 36.9 (Figure 4).
Figure 4The number for the older offender category has risen since 1976 when 176 teens were arrested for weapon law violations. Arrests for this offense grew 502.2 percent, to a trend high of 1,060 arrests in 1994. Arrests for this group experienced a rapid 232.3 percent increase between 1987 and 1994. The arrest rate for this group steadily climbed from less than one arrest per 1,000 16 and 17 year olds, to more than six arrests per 1,000.
Other Offenses
Three other Part II offenses should be mentioned based upon the noteworthy arrest pattern changes which occurred from 1976 to 1994. The juveniles arrested in 1994 for the offense of simple assault (N=2,529) represents a 413 percent increase over the number arrested in 1976 (N=493). Simple assault arrests for the 16 and 17 year old offender group grew 277.2 percent between 1976 and 1994 (1976, N=862 arrests; 1994, N=3,252). The arrest rates for both age groups doubled between 1987 and 1994.
The number of juveniles arrested for vandalism and disorderly conduct in 1994 significantly exceeded the number arrested in 1976. This growth was most apparent among the older offenders, with vandalism arrests increasing 253.3 percent and disorderly conduct arrests increasing 254.4 percent. Among the younger violators, vandalism and disorderly conduct arrests grew 62 percent and 589 percent respectively. This expansive growth is a recent phenomenon in which arrest trends remained relatively uniform until 1988 when they experienced an episode of explosive and rapid acceleration.
Summary
A comparison of the 1976 and 1994 juvenile arrest statistics documents an increase in the total number of arrests for juveniles, under the age of 16, and 16 and 17 year old delinquents. In general, juvenile arrests reached peak heights in the late 1970s, and were followed by a decline or leveling off period during the early and mid 1980s. This decline was abruptly interrupted in the late 1980s when juvenile arrests experiencing a drastic and exorbitant escalation, one that continued into the early 1990s and propelled the number of 1994 arrests well beyond the previously high number of arrests recorded in 1976.
The most apparent and distinctive aspect of this increase has been the voluminous rise in the number of juveniles being arrested for the most serious and violent offenses. Arrests of 16 and 17 year old offenders for the crimes of robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault,and drug and weapon law violations, have expanded significantly. However; this significance pales in comparison to the astronomical growth in the number of younger juveniles being arrested for these same violent offenses.
Arrests of 16 and 17 year old offenders for property-related offenses experienced only a slight increase between 1976 and 1994. The number of younger offenders arrested for property-related offenses declined during the nineteen-year period. While arrests for some property offenses, such as arson, vandalism, and larceny, did experience a moderate amount of growth, this growth did not always equal, or rarely exceeded, the growth that occurred in the violent offenses. This may be indicative of a future trend where the ratio of property arrests to violent arrests undergoes a significant reduction with thenumber of arrests for violent offenses closely approximating, or even converging with, arrests for property offenses.
Given the disparity between the excessive percentage of growth for violent crime arrests and the percentage of either slight growth or decline for property crime arrests, the probability of this occurring is much greater for those juveniles under the age of 16.
The future of North Carolina’s juvenile crime problem could be exacerbated if the recently increasing trends in drug and weapon violations persist into the 21st century. While the state did experience high levels of juvenile
arrest activity for drugs and violent crime in the late 1970s, this period was marked by the lack of a concurrently high level of juvenile weapon arrests. The combination of an even greater level of arrests for violent crime, the increase in drug arrests, as well as the sharp increase in weapon arrests, could be an ever worsening volatile mix for the late 1990s and beyond.
Coalition for Juvenile Justice. (1995). No easy answers: Juvenile justice in a climate of fear, 1994 annual report. Washington, D.C: Coalition for Juvenile Justice.
North Carolina Department of Justice, State Bureau of Investigation, Division of Criminal Information. (1976 - 1994). Crime in North Carolina. Annual Uniform Crime Reports. Raleigh, N.C: North Carolina Department of Justice.
United States Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation. (1992). Crime in the United States:1991. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office.